The Chinese goral is a goat-like animal that climbs rocky, steep slopes on broad hooves.
It has long, grayish fur, short horns and broad hooves.
Researchers modeled the future of a Chinese goral population in Yunmengshan Nature Reserve, Beijing. The analysis used camera-trapping information and parameters from other goral populations. Under a scenario with an initial population of 78, the model projected growth during the first 20 years, followed by decline.
Under that scenario, the projected extinction probability was 32%, and the mean time to extinction was 69.42 years. Initial population size, sex ratio at birth, and infant mortality were identified as factors affecting the modeled trajectory. The analysis concerned one local reserve population.
An extinction-risk assessment has not been added yet.
The Yunmengshan study modeled one Chinese goral population using camera-trapping information and parameters from other goral populations. With an initial estimate of 78 animals, the model projected a 32% extinction probability and a mean extinction time of 69.42 years. The paper also describes small populations separated by infrastructure and tourism sites around Beijing. Initial population size, sex ratio at birth, and infant mortality influenced the modeled outcome. These findings provide local population and habitat context for conservation planning in the reserve.